R. Ashok Kumar,B.E.,M.E.,Negentropist,Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal,299,Tardeo Road,Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
3 May 2009.
© 2011 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
Deforestation from 2150 BC to the present, combined with the frenetic pace with which dams were built to create surface water storage and use since the 1900s have transformed nature significantly. Deforestation was accompanied by the progressive reduction of the mean time between earthquakes(MTBQ) and from 1900 in the wake of the dam building era the MTBQ further drastically reduced. See Figures MTBQ2150BC1899ADChart19 and MTBQ19002008(Chart15). By 1918, the USA with 684 dams and a total capacity of more than 42.5 billion cubic meters(BCM) had 56% of the 1226 dams in the World and 58.6% of the World’s dam capacity of 72.6 BCM(Table DD19001918). The forests were the perfect dams defying gravity and through their osmotic and transpiration processes made possible by the sun acted as giant pumps at 10 km water pressure head more or less. The groundwaters were pumped back into the atmosphere by the action of the trees. This enabled an atmospheric distribution network of water to be maintained in proportion to the density of vegetation. The same waters were used again and again in this way at a power flow of 1000 to 3000 MW/km^2 in the living net. The land on which the trees stood was kept fertile by the fallen leaves and used by the tree. The winds were created by the tree. The humidity was maintained and the humus in the soil retained. Come modern civilisation and this rude transformation from the groundwater storage to surface water storage described above became significant for two man-made natural disasters: Waves of Earthquakes and Waves of Water borne diseases. Haskell county in Kansas where the 1918-1919 flu-pneumonia pandemic originated became surrounded by the surface water bodies. These surface reservoirs(of stagnant waters) were infinitely more than what existed in nature which was the forest and natural lakes in optimal ecological combination evolved over millions of years. See Table DD19001918 for this unprecedented transformation in an instant. The correlation between the dam capacities, earthquakes and the flu pandemic death rates(three waves in both the latter two consequences of dams) became deterministic(Figures 3 and 4). The frequency of earthquakes compared to the pre-dam era has increased by three orders of magnitude in the dam era(Figures 1 and 2).
India was worst affected in the 1918-1919 flu pandemic, with more than 20 million deaths. See the figure 4 below for the correlation with dams for the district of Columbia and Bombay Presidency British India:
Dams induce earthquakes which seem to have caused the pandemic flu of 1918 to 1919. The response of influenza is significantly similar(See Figure 3 for the deterministic relationship) to that of seismic moments as Figure ACh68 reveals:
For 1900- 1919, the pandemic deaths in UK 1918-1919 significantly correlates with the Annual Seismic Moment Sum as the figure below again shows bringing out the probable cause as the world’s dams:
30th April 2009.
The swine flu alert level has been raised to five saying that a pandemic is imminent. At this juncture lets see the stagnant water situation( Dams) now:
The surface water area provided by the world’s dams has increased by two orders of magnitude from1918 to 2009. China presents the largest increase of four orders of magnitude and no wonder the diseases associated with the migratory birds skyrocketed with bird flu originating there. Around ten latitude degrees south of Haskell county Kansas is Mexico in the same longitude band on the North American continent. The stagnant water availability was highest in the USA in 1918 and Kansas was the origin of the 1918 flu Pandemic. This availability has increased by an order of magnitude in Mexico and we see that from Mexico the flu has spread to the USA and on account of globalisation of stagnant water availability by orders of magnitude higher, the situation was rife for the diseases associated with stagnant water bodies to spread throughout the world.
Correlation of Earthquake Mean Location, the Mean Hot spot location and the locations of the swine flu eruption
From our study of the cause effect relation of the 1918 American Pandemic Flu it is logical to investigate the connection with the swine flu as well. The USGS data base study reveals that Mexico is a veritable hot spot with the earth heated up below Mexico by the quakes with the dams rubbing the two sides of the faults ceaselessly. Note that the Mexico boomerang has been heating up from March 2009. Even today this boomerang is a hotspot(See Figure HSM derived from the hotspot data from the Web Fire Mapper for 16th April 2009 for confirmation of the hotspots created by the dams via the rubs and the quakes).
The mean locations of the quakes, the hotspots(thermal readings from satellites) and of the swine flu eruption locations are interchangeable. See the following Table QHFLULOCS2009(Look at the Chi-sq distribution):Note that the mean hotspot for 26th April 2009 is next to Mexico City where the largest number of flu cases were registered.
The corresponding graphical representation follows:
There are 22755 earthquakes on this map. The period is 1.1.1973 to 20.04.2009. The approximate area of this coverage is 1958000 km^2.There is an earthquake for every 86 km^2 during this period. The corresponding hotspots as read on 16/04/2009 from satellites(Global Infrared Hotspots) for 0-24 hours are shown below:
Even for a single day the hotspots are a faithful reproduction of the previous earthquake locations. History repeats itself. As developed above the flu pandemic of 1918-1919 faithfully reproduced the earthquake seismic moments between 1900 to 1919 as excess death rates. Similarly if the present swine flu is not contained globally it will faithfully reproduce the Maximum Seismic Moments of the historical earthquakes from 1900 on(the dam era). But the death toll would be an order of magnitude higher(500 million to a billion). The figure,DEC65:1900-2007 below, shows the relationship between the annual mean seismic moment and the annual dam capacity. We have seen above how the 1918-1919 flu pandemic death rate is a faithful reproduction of the shape of the earthquake curve. The genesis of the shapes lie in the global electrical load demand which correlates deterministically with the seismic moments and the flu death rates. The load demands are met head on synchronously by the hydrogenerators which draw the water from the dams in surge waves which create surges of bending stresses on the faults worldwide resulting in the very high frequency of earthquakes compared to the pre-dam era as shown in this article. The earthquakes and the pandemic flu are thus parallel responses with the pandemic lagging the earthquakes by a time period determined by the ecological relations between the multifarious non-homogenic participants. The persistent surges of heating up of the earth by the electric load demand (and other consumptive water uses) and the surges of filling up of the reservoirs during the rains cause a number of parallel responses apart from earthquakes and pandemics. They are floods, fires, volcanoes, landslides, ice melts, sea level rises which synergistically alter the state in which the earth and its inhabitants have to readjust themselves, in ecological and geological instants instead of at rates they were used to on much larger time frames. As shown above(Figures 1 and 2), the frequency of the earthquakes has increased by three orders of magnitude in the modern era compared to the pre-dam era and is increasing further as the number of dams are relentlessly increasing.
Se we must change the way we live from the modern to the normal.
Recommendations for a safer world
Change life style from the modern to the normal. The modern exports and imports everything everywhere, forever increasing electrical load demand. By energy conservation and going over to the culture of small self-sufficient communities similar to the electrical power pool concept, we work where we live made feasible by e-governance and e-living. Also the concept of production by the masses and not mass production should be implemented first and then the question of mass production taken up for meeting the balance requirements. The principle of production,consumption and return should be the motto and strategy for action. By using living energy including massive ecological reforestation and preserving rigidly existing forest remnants, we will limit our demands which can be sustained by nature. Practice of return creates no waste and this calls for infinite efficiency energy systems. Energy audit of thermal and nuclear power systems shows that on account of climate change effects and adverse energy audit, such systems will require us to harness fossil fuels in ever greater quantities and this is against life itself.
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19. Mexico in 1918-1919. Record of the epidemic from Ref 16:
Epidemic influenza is stated to have appeared in Mexico
during the first week in October 1918, and to have spread
rapidly throughout the whole republic. The central tableland
seems to have suffered much, including the City of Mexico
(population 475,000) the capital of the republic. During
October the average daily number of deaths rose from 75 in
normal times to 230. The disease is said to have appeared in
various forms, namely (1) the hemorrhagic; (2) the nervous;
and (3) the gastro-intestinal, and was frequently complicated
It was observed that young adults were most affected and
that persons who had previously had the disease in a severe
form in 1890 escaped in 1918. A report by a foreign representative
at Mexico City early in November stated that the
outbreak had been particularly virulent in that town, observing
that '' no doubt the Mexicans are exceptionally easy victims on
" account of the conditions brought about by the revolution.
" There are, moreover, no proper organised medical arrange-
" ments and no funds available to meet the emergency. It is
" reported that in some of the towns in Mexico there is at
" present no means for burying the dead. In Mexico City the
" death rate—believed already to be the highest in any town of
" the world—is thought to have doubled in the last two or
" three weeks. Many members of Congress have already died."
During October the number of deaths from influenza in Mexico
City was officially reported to be 438 and 544 from pneumonia
(all forms); and in November there were 1,402 deaths from
* Journal of the American Medical Association, 9th August 1919.
influenza and 1,162 from pneumonia. In December the figures
were 65 from influenza and 261 from pneumonia; in January
1919, the numbers further declined, there being only 11 deaths
from influenza and 231 from pneumonia, the numbers for
February being respectively 7 and 211.
At Puebla, the third city in Mexico (with a population
about 100,000) and situated 116 miles by rail from the City
Mexico, the deaths numbered, at the height of the epidemic
October, about 300 a day. At Piedras Negras, 152 deaths were
reported in two weeks, and many cages occurred at Nuevo Leon
and Tamanlipas, all on the Texan border. In the State
Chiapas, at the town of Tapachula, during the two weeks ended
17th November, 500 fatal cases of influenza were reported.
During the month of October 467 deaths from influenza
occurred at the Mexican seaport of Tampico (population 20,000).
At the port of Vera Cruz, about half of the crew of an Argentine
war vessel were attacked by influenza early in October and the
disease was present at this port up to the end of January 1919.
From a ship that arrived at Tampico on 18th October from
United States port, six of the crew were landed suffering from
influenza. The disease was epidemic in October in the coal
mining districts near Sabina, in the province of Coahuila
causing an average of 10 deaths daily. The epidemic gave rise
to considerable ravages in the States of Senora and Sinaloa
the Pacific coast, but no figures as to those have been obtained.
Towards the end of January 1919 the epidemic showed
general decline. The total deaths caused by influenza
Mexico during the period from October 1918 to January 1919
have been variously estimated ; one estimate published in the
Press gave the total number of fatal cases as, approximately,
432,000, while another raised the number to half-a-million
round numbers. At the City of Tapachula 3,000 deaths
occurred in a population of 30,000 ; and in the State of Chiapas
it is said that a tenth of the population died from influenza and
its results during the epidemic. A statement published
Mexico City on 2nd January 1919 gives the results of the
epidemic in 25 states and the Federal District. This shows
that the highest mortality occurred in the State of Michoacan,
namely, 48,000 deaths in a population of 991,000, and the
lowest, 900 fatal cases, in Colima with a population of 77,700.
No estimates have yet been made as to the influenza mortality
in Campeche, Morelos, Yucatan, Lower California, or in the
territory of Quintana Roo.
The latest reports issued early in January 1919 stated that
the disease was still seriously epidemic in the states of Chiapas
and Tabasco,* but there had been a general decline in most
the other states.
* United States Public Health Reports, 7th March 1919